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By Jennifer Mateyaschuk


The Department of Commerce has one word for IT managers stung by the shortage of skilled workers: training.

“There’s no question that if you don’t have people properly trained for the future, it will affect our economy,” Secretary of Commerce William Daley said in an interview with Information Week last week. “If the need for IT workers isn’t addressed, it could have a sizable impact on our economy because information technology, such as E-commerce, is playing such a tremendous part in our economic explosion,” Daley says.

Commerce is careful to avoid the word “shortage” in connection with the growing demand for IT talent. The report points out that the computer industry tends to see the problem as a worker shortage, but employee advocacy groups argue there are enough trained technical professionals in the United States, but industry professionals aren’t tapping these resources. Economists, on the other hand, contend the IT workforce challenge is the expected result of a rising importance of IT in our economy, and market forces will fix the problem in the long run.

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

Employment Projections For Core IT Occupations

Demand for computer scientists, computer engineers, and systems analysts are each projected to more than double in the decade ending 2006. By comparison, the growth rate for all occupations is expected to increase 14% during this period.
OCCUPATION EMPLOYED 1996 PROJECTED 2006 PROJECTED GROWTH
COMPUTER SCIENTISTS 212,000 461,000 118%
COMPUTER ENGINEERS 216,000 451,000 109%
SYSTEM ANALYSTS 506,000 1,025,000 103%
COMPUTER PROGRAMMERS 568,000 697,000 23%
Total 1,502,000 2,634,000 75%
All Occupations 14%
Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, 1996 Industry-Occupation Employment Matrix
The Commerce report points out that IT was responsible for more than a third of the growth in the U.S. economy between 1995 and 1997, and IT accounts for almost half of the nation’s long-term growth since World War II.

Other findings in the report:

- Between 1987 and 1998, the unemployment rate for IT workers was approximately 2%, compared to a 42-year low of 4.2% for all workers in March of this year.

- From 1996 to 2006, the number of core IT workers-computer scientists, computer engineers, systems analysts, and computer programmers-will have grown from 1.5 million in 1996 to 2.6 million in 2006; add another 250,000 or so to replace those exiting these professions.

- Between 1983 and 1998, the number of IT workers increased 190%, to 2.1 million, more than six times the nation’s job growth rate.

- Women are still underrepresented in the IT labor force, accounting for only 12% of the IT population in 1998.

- Minorities, including African Americans and Hispanics, are also underrepresented in the IT labor force. African Americans represent 7.2% and Hispanics account for 3.6% of computer systems analysts and scientists; they represent 6.4% and 4.9% of computer programmers, respectively.

- Traffic on the Internet is doubling every 100 days, propagating the need for hardware, software, and skilled IT workers to implement and manage Internet systems.

- The mix of knowledge and skills varies from one IT position to another, making it difficult for employers to find and hire employees with the right mix of skills, such as Java programmers, and computer security and E-commerce specialists.

- 75% of computer systems analysts and scientists, and nearly 80% of computer programmers, are under the age of 45.

- The IT industry is increasing its use of temporary workers. Total wages paid for assigned technical workers-a category that includes computer programmers, systems analysts, designers, drafters, editors, engineers, and illustrators grew from $1.9 billion in 1991 to $4.7 billion in 1998.

The report points out that in a rapidly growing industry, “vacancies are a normal part of business.” In addition, getting the right individual with just the right combination of IT skills is especially challenging. “Many companies are demanding IT people that are an exact fit with their job descriptions,” says Kelly Cames, assistant secretary designate for the Department of Commerce. “These companies need to train and retrain individuals and help to equip them with the combination of IT skills that they’re looking for.”


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